Insights
Perspectives from our practice.
Briefings, frameworks and fieldnotes on the questions our clients are wrestling with — written by the people doing the work, not the people marketing it.
Healthcare & Life Sciences
Pricing donor-tranche delay in African health programmes
Donor disbursements slip. Every large African health programme knows it, and almost none of them price it into the base-case budget. The gap between base and downside is where credibility with the ministry of finance lives.
Telecom
Stress-testing a national fibre tariff against FX and inflation
A wholesale fibre tariff that clears cost-of-service at the base case is the beginning of the analysis, not the end. It has to clear at the P20 downside too, or the programme becomes a stranded asset.
Oil, Gas & Energy
Integrated Monte Carlo for gas-to-power bankability
The gas supply agreement, the tariff waterfall and the sovereign guarantee are usually stress-tested in three separate rooms. They only become bankable once they are stress-tested in one.
Construction & Major Projects
The three exposures every African megaproject leaves unpriced
Across a decade of African rail, road and port programmes, three risks show up in every post-mortem and almost never in the base case: FX on imports, utility-relocation delay, and land-acquisition timing.
Telecom
Towerco covenants in a higher-rate, weaker-currency world
The tower covenants that were comfortable in a low-rate, stable-currency world are uncomfortable once rates step up and local currencies weaken. Refinancing needs a stochastic view, not a sensitivity table.
Public & Social Infrastructure
Sizing the first-loss tranche: the number that unlocks blended finance
First-loss concessional capital is not a policy instrument. It is a number, and the number is the P20 shortfall of the underlying cash-flow model. Sizing it any other way is why most blended deals stall.
Public & Social Infrastructure
Multi-currency FX exposure in DPI programme budgets
A digital public infrastructure programme funded by four donors is exposed to at least four currencies. Almost none of the published budgets show which one carries the risk.
Mining & Metals
The commodity-price distribution the board paper always simplifies
Every mine expansion paper leans on a long-run price. The LME distribution over the last fifteen years is a different number, and it is the number the board should be underwriting.
Mining & Metals
Pricing tailings and permit risk as financial exposures
Community and permit risk sits in the sustainability section of the board pack. It belongs in the cash-flow model, with a distribution attached and a number the board can act on.
Telecom
Spectrum reserve prices and the FX exposure regulators do not price
A spectrum reserve price set in local currency and paid in dollars is a policy choice with a fiscal cost. Modelling the FX path between award and payment usually moves the effective take by double digits.
The Timtony Briefing
A monthly executive briefing, delivered with the discretion of a private memo.
One letter a month, written by the partner closest to the question. No promotional copy, no recycled summaries — just the thinking we would share with a client over a long lunch.