Infrastructure · January 2026 · 8 min read
The blended finance stack actually closing deals in 2026
Blended finance has been an idea for a decade and a closing structure for considerably less. The deals signing in 2026 share a recognisable architecture that the conference circuit is still catching up to.
The argument
The working stack is not 'concessional plus commercial' as the policy papers describe it. It is a tightly sequenced waterfall — first-loss DFI tranche, mezzanine from a regional development bank, senior commercial debt from local banks with a partial sovereign guarantee, and an equity layer that includes at least one strategic that the project genuinely needs. The order matters; the documents matter even more.
What we see in the field
Across the deals we have advised on or watched closely, the closing accelerant has consistently been the same: a sponsor with the authority to make trade-offs across the stack in a single conversation, instead of negotiating each layer in sequence with separate counterparties.
What it changes
For governments, the implication is that the deals will sign in the markets that make it easy to negotiate the whole stack at once — not necessarily the markets with the most capital available on paper. For sponsors, it means the work of capital structuring now happens earlier than feasibility.
Where to start
Map the next infrastructure deal as a single waterfall before approaching any single capital provider. If the waterfall cannot be drawn on one page, the deal is not yet ready to be marketed.
