Construction & Major Projects · Transport / Major Construction
Monte Carlo Capex and Schedule Audit of a Metro Rail Programme
An illustrative engagement: running a capex and schedule Monte Carlo on a large metro rail programme, surfacing previously unpriced exposures before financial close.
Challenge
A capital-city metro programme is approaching financial close on a headline number the sponsoring authority has defended publicly. The lender syndicate has raised quiet concerns about schedule contingency, FX assumptions on imported rolling stock, and utility-relocation risk sitting outside the main works contract. The authority needs an independent read the board can put in front of lenders.
Solution
We rebuild the cost and schedule as a joint Monte Carlo. Labour productivity, FX pass-through on rolling stock, land-acquisition timing, utility-relocation lead time and permit-approval delay are each replaced with distributions calibrated to comparable African rail programmes. We run the simulation, produce scenario-weighted capex and completion outcomes, and draft the risk-allocation memo that sits inside the lender information memorandum.
Results
Previously unpriced exposures — FX on imported rolling stock, utility-relocation delay, and land-acquisition timing — are surfaced and re-allocated between the authority, the contractor consortium and the lenders before signing. The headline number moves only marginally, but the downside distribution tightens enough for the syndicate to close.
Future Applications
The same simulation discipline is adapted for the authority's next urban-transport packages, and the risk-allocation memo becomes a reference for future concession approvals.
